Medifast Reports Q4 and 2018 Results, 2019 Forecasts

Feb. 26, 2019 -- As reported in a Medifast Press Release...

"We are very pleased with our strong finish to 2018," commented Dan Chard, Medifast's Chief Executive Officer. "We reached a significant corporate milestone generating over $500 million in annual revenue and profitability exceeded our expectations. Importantly, we achieved these results while accelerating the level of strategic investment to support our long-term growth plans to build our brand platform and operations as we continue to improve the scalability of our business. "

Fourth Quarter 2018 Results

For the fourth quarter of 2018, revenue increased 87.0% to $145.8 million from revenue of $78.0 million for the fourth quarter last year. OPTAVIA-branded products represented 72% of consumable units sold for the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to 51% for the fourth quarter of last year. The total number of active earning OPTAVIA Coaches for the fourth quarter of 2018 increased to 24,100, compared to 15,000 for the fourth quarter of 2017. The average revenue per active earning OPTAVIA Coach for the fourth quarter of 2018 increased 26.2% to $5,756 compared to $4,562 for the fourth quarter last year.

Fiscal 2018 Results

For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018, revenue increased 66.1% to $501.0 million compared to revenue of $301.6 million in 2017.  Net income for 2018 was $55.8 million, or $4.62 per diluted share based on approximately 12.1 million shares, compared to $27.7 million, or $2.29 per diluted share for the comparable period last year based on approximately 12.1 million shares outstanding.

Fourth Quarter 2018 Highlights:

  • Revenue of $145.8 million, an increase of 87.0% year-over-year
  • Active earning coaches of 24,100, an increase of 60.7% year-over-year
  • Net income of $15.7 million, an increase of 114.2% year-over-year

Full Year 2018 Highlights:

  • Revenue of $501.0 million, an increase of 66.1% year-over-year
  • Net income of $55.8 million, an increase of 101.3% year-over-year
  • EPS of $4.62, an increase of 101.7% year-over-year.

2019 Outlook

The company expects first quarter revenue to be in the range of $150 million to $155 million and EPS to be in the range of $1.50 to $1.55.  For the full year 2019, the company expects revenue of $700 million to $720 million and EPS of $6.45 to $6.65.

The complete Press release can be found here:

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17425475-medifast-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-full-year-2018-financial-results

Conference Call Information

Manangement reported that the firm has 72 Optavia products. This last quarter represents the 7th consecutive quarter of yoy revenue gains, and the 4th quarter of 2018 was the biggest in company history (87% sales increase vs. 2018). The company has a goal of having 30,000 health coaches by the end of 2019 and 50,000 by the end of 2021. The goal is for $1 billion in sales by 2021--double the current level. The company expects to launch operations overseas in Hong Kong and Singapore in June of this year. Medifast launched a new e-commerce platform to support intl. operations, with multi-lingual capability. The company believes that there is a $17 billion addressable weight loss market in the U.S.

Marketdata Commentary

Medifast expects to increase revenues by 41% in 2019, to $700+ million. Wow! That's some increase, on top of the 66% gain of 2018. Can't argue with results. We guess that the MLM model is working like gangbusters, as contrasted with flat sales expectation by both NutriSystem and WW (Weight Watchers). The fact that they have achieved these results without a large national TV ad campaign is impressive.

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