(813) 971-8080

7210 Wareham Drive, Tampa, FL 33647

Recession Is Coming – But Commercial Diet Companies Could Benefit

March 13, 2025

Marketdata, the parent company of DietBusinessWatch.com, is currently updating its report on the Commercial & Retail Weight Loss Market. Several things have become apparent as we do the research

Marketdata analysts see a possible opportunity this year for the commercial (non-medical) weight loss firms to recover some ground. Here’s how we think 2025 will play out, under the Trump Administration. Based on his actions so far, we think Trump will continue the trade war and tariffs, and continue the government employee layoffs. Plus, drill baby drill. Gas prices will come down, but grocery and consumer goods prices and inflation will rise. Private sector companies, spooked by all the uncertainty, will implement cost cutting measures and layoffs. Unemployment rises. Leading economists are now predicting the chances of recession at 40-50%. The country will be in a recession in the second half of the year.

The large health insurers continue denying claims for weight loss drugs.

The FDA’s deadline of May 22 comes, for compounding pharmacies to stop making the cheaper GLP-1 meds, leaving consumers to now purchase the higher priced brand names. The shortage is over.

As consumers lose jobs, their disposable income declines, leaving less money to pay for weight loss programs. With limited insurance coverage (high denials), and an inability to pay full price of $1,000 – $1,300 per month out of pocket for the brand name meds, and compounded meds now of the market, they have no option left but to use non-drug weight loss programs (i.e. commercial programs such as Weight Watchers, NutriSystem), online plans and apps, and retail meal replacements.

Consequently, we could see growth in the commercial diet companies market during the second half of 2025. How much is hard to say, but probably moderate growth of 5-10%.

Need More Insights Into The Weight Loss Market?

See Marketdata’s recent report: “The U.S. Medical Weight Loss Market”, February 2025, 154 pages. For sale at: marketdataenterprises.com

Coming Soon: new report: “The U.S. Commercial & Retail (non-medical) Weight Loss Market”, 180+ pages, March 2025

Get on the list to be notified when it’s available, Table of Contents, call us: 813-971-8080, or email us: marketdataent@yahoo.com

Telephone Conference Calls: With senior analyst, John LaRosa, who has 36 years experience tracking the market, $199/hr.

Scroll to Top